Saham Negri Paman Sam Gagal Rally

Sebuah rally (kenaikan panjang) pada saham-saham AS gagal dipertahankan di akhir perdagangan Rabu (12/3), karena pasar melemah di tengah kekhawatiran baru tentang kredit yang seret dan melonjaknya harga minyak ke rekor tertinggi bar

Seperti dikutip dari Antara, Indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average turun 46,57 poin atau 0,38 persen menjadi ditutup pada 12.110,24 dan indeks komposit Nasdaq menyusut 11,89 poin atau 0,53 persen menjadi 2.243,87.

Indikator pasar secara luas indeks Standard & Poor’s 500 melemah 11,88 poin atau 0,90 persen menjadi berakhir pada 1.308,77.

Para investor pada mulanya telah memperpanjang rally besar Selasa, didukung oleh tindakan terkoordinasi the Federal Reserve dengan bank-bank sentral lainnya menyuntikkan likuiditas ke dalam sistim keuangan global.

Tetapi antusiasme itu berlangsung pendek di tengah kekhawatiran baru tentang efektivitas tindakan skala besar tersebut, yang termasuk the Fed menawarkan 200 miliar dollar AS dalam sebuah lelang baru kepada bank-bank dan broker yang terpukul kerugian dari sekuritas berbasis mortgage.

"Pertanyaan besar adalah apakah tindakan kemarin oleh the Fed itu akan memiliki dampak akhir atau hanya antiseptik sangat jangka pendek," kata Frederick Dickson dari DA Davidson & Co.

Elena Mehas, seorang analis pada Merrill Lynch, mengatakan the Fed terus "memberikan reaksi terhadap peristiwa yang membentang."

"Ini eksperimen terakhir, sebagai pekerjaan lain yang lebih jauh, tidak bertujuan menyelesaikan masalah mendasar ... kami melihat tidak ada sebab mendasar untuk suatu perubahan ekonomi mereka atau prospek laba meski pasar modal pada awalnya bereaksi positif terhadap inisiatif terakhir ini," kata Mehas.

Beberapa analis melihat langkah the Fed sebagai pengurang rintangan akan menurunkan suku bunganya secara agresif tiga perempat poin pada pertemuan 18 Maret.

Al Goldman dari AG Edwards mengatakan bahwa sekarang penurunan suku bunga setengah poin lebih mungkin. "Kami yakin sebuah dasar telah dibuat dan satu-dua pekan pasar bearish telah mulai rally," kata dia.

Pasar saham juga terbebani melonjaknya harga minyak yang memicu tekanan inflasi dan dapat menghambat manuver the Fed dalam mencoba menyelamatkan ekonomi terbesar dunia itu terhindari dari sebuah resesi.

Harga minyak melampaui 110 dollar AS per barel untuk pertama kalinya di New York, melesat dalam perdagangan harian ke level tertinggi 110,20 dolar AS dan ditutup pada rekor 109,92 dollar AS.

Di London, minyak berjangka Brent melambung ke rekor 106,39 dollar AS dalam perdagangan harian. Dollar AS terpuruk ke posisi terendah dalam sejarah terhadap euro pada 1,5559 dollar AS.

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Dollar-euro currency exchange

This article provides an overview of the factors affecting the leading currency pair: euro-dollar exchange, commonly expressed as EUR/USD.

The euro to dollar exchange rate is the price at which the world demand for US dollars equals the world supply of euros. Regardless of geographical origin, a rise in the world demand for euros leads to an appreciation of the euro.

Factors affecting exchange rates
Four factors are identified as fundamental determinants of the real euro to dollar exchange rate:
*The international real interest rate differential
*Relative prices in the traded and non-traded goods sectors
*The real oil price
*The relative fiscal position

The nominal bilateral dollar to euro exchange is the exchange rate that attracts the most attention. Notwithstanding the comparative importance of euro to US dollar bilateral trade links, trade with the UK is, to some extent, more important for the Euro zone than is trade with the US. The dollar and the euro have a strong predisposition to run together in the very short run, but sometimes there can be significant discrepancies. The very strong appreciation of the dollar against the euro in 2003 is one example of these discrepancies.

In the long run, the correlation between the bilateral dollar to euro exchange rate, and different measures of the effective exchange rate of Euroland, have been rather high, especially if one looks at the effective real exchange rate. As inflation is at very similar levels in the US and the Euro area, there is no need to adjust the dollar to euro rate for inflation differentials, but because the Euro zone also trades intensively with countries that have relatively high inflation rates (e.g. some countries in Central and Eastern Europe, Turkey, etc.), it is more important to downplay nominal exchange rate measures by looking at relative price and cost developments.

The fall of the dollar
The steady and orderly decline of the dollar from early 2002 to early 2004 against the euro, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and a few other currencies (i.e., its trade-weighted average, which is what counts for purposes of trade adjustment), while significant, has still only amounted to about 10 percent.

There are two reasons why concerns about a free fall of the dollar should not be worth consideration. The first is that the US external deficit will stay high only if US growth remains vigorous. But if the US continues to grow strongly, it will also retain a strong attraction for foreign capital, which should support the dollar. The second reason is that the attempts by the monetary authorities in Asia to keep their currencies weak will probably not work.

The basic theories underlying the dollar to euro exchange rate:
Law of One Price: In competitive markets free of transportation cost barriers to trade, identical products sold in different countries must sell at the same price when the prices are stated in terms of the same currency.

Interest rate effects: If capital is allowed to flow freely, exchange rates become stable at a point where equality of interest is established.

The dual forces of supply and demand determine euro vs. dollar exchange rates. Various factors affect these two forces, which in turn affect the exchange rates:

The business environment: Positive indications (in terms of government policy, competitive advantages, market size, etc.) increase the demand for the currency, as more and more enterprises want to invest there.

Stock market: The major stock indices also have a correlation with the currency rates.

Political factors: All exchange rates are susceptible to political instability and anticipations about the new government. For example, political or financial instability in Russia is also a flag for the euro to US dollar exchange because of the substantial amount of German investments directed to Russia.

Economic data: Economic data such as labor reports (payrolls, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings), consumer price indices (CPI), producer price indices (PPI), gross domestic product (GDP), international trade, productivity, industrial production, consumer confidence etc., also affect fluctuations in currency exchange rates.

Confidence in a currency is the greatest determinant of the real euro-dollar exchange rate. Decisions are made based on expected future developments that may affect the currency. A EUR/USD exchange can operate under one of four main types of exchange rate systems:

Fully fixed exchange rates
In a fixed exchange rate system, the government (or the central bank acting on its behalf) intervenes in the currency market in order to keep the exchange rate close to a fixed target. It is committed to a single fixed exchange rate and does not allow major fluctuations from this central rate.

Semi-fixed exchange rates
Currency can move inside permitted ranges of fluctuation. The exchange rate is the dominant target of economic policy-making, interest rates are set to meet the target and the exchange rate is given a specific target.

Free floating
The value of the currency is determined solely by market supply and demand forces in the foreign exchange market. Trade flows and capital flows are the main factors affecting the exchange rate. A floating exchange rate system: Monetary system in which exchange rates are allowed to move due to market forces without intervention by national governments. For example, the Bank of England does not actively intervene in the currency markets to achieve a desired exchange rate level. With floating exchange rates, changes in market demand and supply cause a currency to change in value. Pure free floating exchange rates are rare - most governments at one time or another seek to "manage" the value of their currency through changes in interest rates and other controls.

Managed floating exchange rates
Governments normally engage in managed floating if not part of a fixed exchange rate system.
The advantages of fixed exchange rates are the disadvantages of floating rates:
Fixed rates provide greater certainty for exporters and importers and, under normal circumstances, there is less speculative activity - although this depends on whether the dealers in the foreign exchange markets regard a given fixed exchange rate as appropriate and credible.

Advantages of floating exchange rates
Fluctuations in the exchange rate can provide an automatic adjustment for countries with a large balance of payments deficit. A second key advantage of floating exchange rates is that it gives the government/monetary authorities flexibility in determining interest rates.

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Too Many Strategies, But Still Frustrated?

It is not too long ago when veteran traders used to draw trend lines using pencil and paper. Market data was sent by physical mail to them and there was no computer and trading desk. Were they really not able to perform by not using super analytical charting platforms? Were they all losers? I bet they were not only doing great, but compared to my fellow traders (Including me) they were absolutely sophisticated traders. I don't want to undermine anyone as we have many legend traders and hundreds of good traders who actually make money around the globe on daily basis. My argument is merely pointed at those traders who think that broken accounts is a result of them not really having the best strategy to trade in a safe and secure manner while at the same time having a one year outlook for reaching 1 million dollar, through a 10000 buck trading account.

Where a trading strategy is introduced as a reliable method of making money for traders, there are some questions that must be asked, to evaluate the accuracy of the given strategy:

*Is it a trend or a range market based strategy?

*If it works as a trend based strategy, what can the strategy offer to trade around range markets, and vice versa for the range market based strategy?

*Is it a day trading strategy or planned to signal longer term trading signals?

*If it is an Intraday trading strategy, how many hours are required and when exactly should I sit down and watch the screen?

*If it is a long term strategy, what is the estimated possible drawdown in pips?

*Is there any historical performance of trading using the given strategy in real accounts and if the answer is "YES" for how long? (don't rely on less than one year)

*Are there any money & risk management rules attached that are specifically tested on this particular strategy?

*What is the average/highest/lowest risk to award ratio of the last year's trades?

*Is there anyone who has used the strategy on a real account? (Be aware of marketing tactics and ask someone who is honest).

*What is the outcome of the trades for the above mentioned trader? Even if positive, don't necessarily trust that exact approach for yourself, because one cannot fit a common strategy with the same characteristics to every trader. In this case you need to test it yourself.

*Ask the developer about the psychological pressures that may come upon you while using that strategy on real accounts (We recommend to ask your mentor to analyze the strategy)

*Does it have an Exit and Stop Loss rule for different market situations?

*Ask the developer if you can get back to him occasionally to ask questions about some points that you don't really understand (don't make it 100 times a week cause he/she won't sell any strategy to you).

However, I know a couple of guys who experienced real damage and disappointment where they tried to believe the strategy given to them from the first day. So I am being serious when I say don't ever try to apply a new strategy on your real account, unless you have met an expert and he has given you the green light, or if you have just passed one year of continuous testing.

Final Words:

You may ask for how long? One year... it's too much...I can't wait...!! Well then you can try it, but count on it as a gamble...You know the gamble...Too many jack pots, nothing Hot Shots.

Let science make you wealthy step by step. Don't ever think you are smarter than any other trader because no one knows what is going to happen next. So it's better to be next to those wise traders who win, because they are disciplined and have spent a long time practicing before doing anything real on their money. Try to admit it if you are not sure enough about your ability, and try to solve the problems with patience and remember it is worth it if you make that million dollars three or even five years later, instead of losing what you got from hard work within just a couple of days.

Also, not to forget, forward any questions you might have on this article to email address : s.a.ghafari@iftc.ir and I will try to respond as soon as possible.
by S.A Ghafari

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76 Rupiah ke SEMUA operator

How long have you been knowing about Short Message Services or most known as SMS?? How often do you use it a day??


At least 10 SMS a day, or even more (especialy teenagers).

The fact is the frequencies of doing SMS increase so fast when you're dating someone, you will like crazy and couldn't even imagine how many SMS that you have sent a day.


Pokonya gila deh, yang ada pasti kalian-kalian pada gak sadar berapa banyak uang yang kalian pake untuk ngebayar SMS-SMS itu. Tau2 pulsa di HP dah nguap, ya gak??


Even more crazy is th FACT about the prize. Harga per SMS yang dipatok oleh semua operator di Indonesia adalah : give me C to the U and the R and the A-N-G alias CURANG. Hmmm....pada gak tau kan??

OK, saya akan jelaskan dari awal semua info tentang SMS, sejauh yang saya tahu berdasar dari beberapa media informasi.


Di negara kita SMS dikenalkan oleh 3 operator seluler, yaitu PT. Excelcomindo Pratama (XL), PT. Telkomsel, dan PT. Indosat pada Mei 2001. Dan SMS mulai booming sejak masuknya sejumlah operator FWA (Fixed Wireless Access) tahun 2002-2003, serta diluncurkan kerjasama SMS lintas operator pada tahun berikutnya.


Akhir-akhir ini perbincangan mengenai SMS semakin marak, terutama mengenai tarif SMS lintas operator yang diduga way too expensive. Sekarang tarif SMS lintas operator adalah sebesar Rp.250 s/d Rp.350 per SMS. Berdasarkan penyelidikan Badan Regulasi Telekomunikasi Indonesia (BRTI), ternyata tarif SMS lintas operator sewajarnya adalah Rp.100 per SMS. Karena menurut BRTI, biaya produksi per SMS hanya sekitar Rp.76. Bahkan biaya yang dimaksud BRTI ini sudah memperhitungkan nilai investasi infrastruktur telekomunikasi, seperti, Base Transceiver Station (BTS), Base Station Control (BCS), Master Switching Control (MSC), Intellegent Network (IN), ect. Dengan kompetisi yang sangat ketat, harusnya tarif SMS bisa jauuuh lebih murah dari sekarang.

Kini, masalah tarif SMS ini sedang menjadi perhatian Komisi Pengawasan Persaingan Usaha, dan Badan Regulasi Telekomunikasi Indonesia. BRTI menduga adanya kerjasama atau perjanjian antar operator seluler, dimana operator bisa menetapkan tarif murah pada oengiriman SMS dalam satu operator dan lebih mahal (talah ditentukan) pada pengiriman SMS lintas operator.


Jadi, tarif SMS lintas operator pada sebagian besar operator kelihatan seragam. (Haduuuh.....rugi kan kita...)


Kalo benar demikian, selama ini mereka mengeruk keuntungan gila-gilaan dari para konsumen yang banyak mengunakan jasa SMS. Penetapan tarif lebih mahal itu daoat dikatakan memanfaatkan ketidaktahuan konsumen dengan bekerjasama sesama operator (Penipuan kan?!!).


Dalam hal ini sangat diperlukan keterbukaan dari para operator seluler yang sebenarnya selama ini sudah mengandung tanda taya besar dalam masyarakat. So, it's time to SPEAK UP.


Kalo mereka gak mau bertindak, ya kita konsumen yang hars bergerak. Apa mau kita terus-terusan dibodohi sama para pebisnis-pebisnis itu....Kalo biaya percakapan aja bisa 'perang' seharusnya hal tentang tarif SMS ini bisa jauh di 'perangkan' lagi..
Malah menurut saya...harunya biaya SMS itu gratis...kayak ngirim e-mail gituu...


Think about that guys...


So, let's broden our knowledge...we need information to fight this unfair treatment from them.


Thanks for reading my blog, have a wonderful day.

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